Forecasting Adoption - How Fast Will the Market Develop?

If you have been reading this series of articles aboutfirst ones to enjoy its benefits. Early adopters are the
how to Harness Market Energy you understand whykey to any technology success story. They teach you
a company would buy your solution, so now you needwhy customers will buy your solution. They are a
to figure out when they will buy it.reality check for your value proposition. From them you
As a technology market matures, Metcalf's Lawlearn about what customers really need, not what you
dictates that it will grow exponentially. Emergingthink they need. You also learn the issues that can stall
technology markets balance the promise ofthe sale or the successful implementation of your
enablement with the risk of adopting a new solution.solution. By paying close attention to the buying
However in every market there comes a time when itbehavior of your early adopters you learn what future
is easier to adopt the new solution than resist change.customers really value
This moment is called the tipping point; when it isTo find early adopters look for prospects who want to
reached, market behavior changes dramatically.create unique strategic advantage. Look for pockets
To anticipate behavior in technology-driven markets,of tension in the marketplace. Who wants to change
you need to understand Technology Adoptionand is really frustrated by the status quo? Early
Lifecycles, a theory explaining how people incorporateadopters like to shake things up. They have a lot of
technological innovation into how they work, play andenergy and want to use it to make a difference.
live. If you create a better mousetrap, does everyoneOne of the challenges of prospecting for early
run out and buy it today? No. It takes time for peopleadopters is that you don't really know who you are
to hear about it; they need to see it work; they need tolooking for. Finding and working early adopter accounts
have a mouse in their house, etc. before they will buyis an iterative process. You will learn something new
one. There are going to be some people who will wanteveryday. You have to constantly revise your theories
to buy it as soon as they hear about it; they are earlyand be open to new ideas, even if they don't fit in with
adopters. Other, more cautious people will wait untilyour existing frameworks. Because you only have the
they see how well it works; they are early majoritylimited perspective of your territory, it is difficult to see
buyers. Others are too cheap to buy it until they cankey trends and identify emerging business strategies.
buy it at the discount mall; they are late majorityThis means you need to set up a communications
buyers. These human responses to new ideas, andnetwork that supports a collaborative learning process
the changes they bring, are the essential conceptsbetween field and staff organizations. Develop a
behind technology adoption.network with your peers in other territories and pick
Understanding how people integrate new technologiesthe brains of the "closers" who are working with other
to improve their business processes, personal lifestyles,sales people so you can keep current on fast-breaking
etc. is the essence of selling technology solutions. As anews about new accounts, market changes and the
technology sales person your success depends oncompetitive environment.
your ability to find the early adopters, so you canForecast the early majority
establish the successful track record you need to buildLike people, markets learn from experience. Once they
credibility as the market matures. Early successsee early adopters enjoying the benefits of the new
captures the attention of the broader market andtechnology- a new set of companies start to consider
provides proof that your solution works. Like theadopting it, too. This next generation of prospects is
snowball rolling down hill, your solution builds thethe early majority. Early majority buyers are more
momentum required to establish a dominant marketpragmatic and concerned about the risks of adoption.
position.Fortunately you have your early adopters to use as
Find early adoptersproof sources for this new set of customers. Early
Early adopters are critical to the long-term viability ofmajority prospects are more likely to focus on new
your technology solution because they help you buildopportunities because they have a high desire for
your track record. If you want to be considered apotential incremental revenue applications that your
serious contender as the market adopts, you neednew technology enables or are more interested in
early competitive wins. Early adopters are customersimproving productivity because they are frustrated
who are willing to risk the inevitable hassles of trying towith legacy constraints.
implement a new technology in exchange for being the