| Yogi Berra once said, "Predictions can be tricky, | | | | sustained and continuing trends in underlying |
| especially when you're talking about the future." And | | | | technologies, where increasing capabilities enable more |
| looking forward is certainly more perilous than using our | | | | complex applications and declining costs drive a |
| 20-20 hindsight. However, the future of rapidly | | | | positive innovation loop, lowering the cost of innovation |
| converging technologies is not so complex and | | | | and enabling wider learning and contributions from |
| uncertain that a few reasonable speculations can't be | | | | more people, thus sustaining the technology trends." |
| discerned. | | | | The growth of a new technological capability typically |
| The truth about the biggest scientific breakthroughs is | | | | follows an S-shaped curve which follows three stages. |
| that they often come when a scientist takes a leap of | | | | First a slow initial growth allows the new technology to |
| imagination out of what is probable into what just might | | | | prove its superiority over previous technology. Once |
| be possible. Scientists seek to understand their | | | | this is demonstrated, rapid growth follows. Finally, |
| surrounds through three remarkable human | | | | growth is limited by technological or socioeconomic |
| characteristics: discovery, invention, and creativity. | | | | competition which leads to an asymptotical leveling off. |
| Discovery is about with finding something that is | | | | The S-shaped curve illustrates the progress of many |
| already there - like finding a gold deposit. Invention is an | | | | inventions such as electrical appliances. Many of the |
| ingenious product of a culmination of many contributing | | | | early analog signal processing devices developed a |
| ideas, like the invention of the telephone. On the other | | | | paradigm shift which took nearly 50 years to come to |
| hand, creativity is the product of a single mind like a | | | | practical fruition as the adoption and utilization of |
| play by Shakespeare. Actually, there is a great deal | | | | independently powered analog machines followed an |
| more to the scientific process, but 'seeing the big | | | | S-shaped curve. Today, the growth of the digital |
| picture' requires an ability to understand the relationship | | | | competitors is following a similar pattern. |
| between relationships. | | | | In Connections: Patterns of Discovery the patterns of |
| Forecasting scientific breakthroughs requires a look into | | | | discovery are presented that produced Moore's Law |
| the prospects of science principles, technologies, and | | | | and the book explores the question, "What is the |
| the economic incentives to identify areas of strategic | | | | software equivalent of Moore's Law?" |
| opportunity. | | | | The patterns challenge the reader to think of the |
| Lessons can be taken from past efforts. In a recent | | | | consequences of extrapolating trends, such as, how |
| review of a 40 year-old forecasting study, Richard E. | | | | Moore's Law could reach machine intelligence, or |
| Albright commented on the one hundred technical | | | | retrench in the face of physical limitations. |
| innovations identified as being considered very likely to | | | | From this perspective, the book draws the 'big picture' |
| be developed in the last third of the twentieth century. | | | | for the Information Revolution's innovations in chips, |
| While fewer than 50% of the predicted innovations | | | | devices, software, and networks. One goal of science |
| were considered "good and timely," Albright found that | | | | is ubiquitous intelligence (UI) where everyone is |
| the accuracy rate for the areas of computers and | | | | connected to devices with access to Artificial |
| communications rose to about 80%. | | | | Intelligence (AI) - offering what Google founder Larry |
| Further, Albright concluded that "we should look for | | | | Page calls 'perfect search. |