| This article continues our study of the four horsemen | | | | many benefits and dangers of molecular |
| of the apocalypse. In Parts 1 and 2, we examined the | | | | manufacturing. One of the problems he tackles is the |
| riders of the white horse and the red horse | | | | potential negative impact on the current economic |
| respectively. We will now study the one who follows | | | | system: |
| them, the rider on the black horse. | | | | "We also must consider the potential negative impacts |
| This third horse appears in verses 5 and 6: | | | | of advanced nanotechnology on our current |
| "When the Lamb broke the third seal, I heard the third | | | | socio-economic structure. |
| living being say, 'Come!' And I looked up and saw a | | | | Low-cost local manufacturing and duplication of |
| black horse, and its rider was holding a pair of scales in | | | | designs could lead to monetary upheaval, as major |
| his hand. And a voice from among the four living | | | | economic sectors contract or even collapse. For |
| beings said, 'A loaf of wheat bread or three loaves of | | | | example, the global steel industry is worth over $700 |
| barley for a day's pay. And don't waste the olive oil | | | | billion. What will happen to the millions of jobs |
| and wine.'" Revelation 6:5-6 (NLT) | | | | associated with that industry - and to the capital |
| What does the symbolic language of this verse tell us | | | | supporting it-when materials many times stronger than |
| about the rider on the black horse? We can identify | | | | steel can be produced quickly and cheaply wherever |
| several points: | | | | (and whenever) they are needed? |
| 1) He rides a black horse. The color black is a symbol | | | | Productive nanosystems could make storable solar |
| of famine. | | | | power a realistic and preferable alternative to |
| 2) He holds a pair of scales in his hand. The rider (the | | | | traditional energy sources. Around the world, individual |
| Antichrist) will be in full control of the world. The scales | | | | energy consumers pay over $600 billion a year for |
| in his hand indicate a need for him to carefully measure | | | | utility bills and fuel supplies. Commercial and industrial |
| and ration the food supply. We know this because the | | | | uses drive the figures higher still. When much of this |
| next verse indicates a scarcity of food. | | | | spending can be permanently replaced with off-grid |
| 3) "A loaf of wheat bread or 3 loaves of barley for a | | | | solar energy, many more jobs will be displaced. |
| day's pay". Three loaves of barley equal | | | | The worldwide semiconductor industry produces |
| approximately one pint. This is generally regarded as a | | | | annual billings of over $150 billion. The U.S. Bureau of |
| minimum sustenance diet. Therefore, this verse | | | | Labor Statistics reports that the industry employs a |
| foreshadows a time when an entire day's wage will | | | | domestic workforce of nearly 300,000 people. |
| barely yield enough food to survive. | | | | Additionally, U.S. retail distribution of electronics products |
| 4) "Don't waste the olive oil and wine". "Olive oil and | | | | amounts to almost $300 billion annually. All of these |
| wine" symbolize luxury items that were exclusive | | | | areas will be impacted significantly if customized |
| domains of the rich during the time the Book of | | | | electronics products can be produced at home for |
| Revelation was written. From this verse, we learn that | | | | about a dollar a pound, the likely cost of raw materials. |
| the famine referenced in the preceding sentence does | | | | If any individual can make products containing |
| not affect the wealthy. | | | | computing power a million times greater than today's |
| I believe the four horsemen in Revelation 6 represent | | | | PCs, where will those jobs go?" |
| the Antichrist and the initial phases of his rise to power. | | | | Although we have faced the problems associated |
| In Parts 1 and 2 of this series, I speculated the | | | | with job displacement in the past (i.e. the replacement |
| Antichrist might use molecular manufacturing to | | | | of the horse and buggy industry with the automobile |
| conquer the world. If this is the case, how do the | | | | industry), these transitions usually took place over |
| actions of the rider on the black horse coincide with | | | | many years and decades. Following the development |
| the development of molecular manufacturing (MM)? Is | | | | of molecular manufacturing, they will take place in a |
| there any reason to believe this technological | | | | matter of weeks and months. |
| breakthrough, which will bring widespread abundance, | | | | In the "Dangers" section of its website, The Center for |
| will also be accompanied by famine? | | | | Responsible Nanotechnology poses many questions |
| Aside from the fact that scarcity and inflation often go | | | | about the initial economic shock of molecular |
| hand-in-hand with war, and war is triggered by the rider | | | | manufacturing, citing the disruption of the current |
| on the red horse, ample evidence suggests molecular | | | | economic order as a strong possibility: |
| manufacturing will, of its own accord, lead to profound | | | | "The purchaser of a manufactured product today is |
| economic upheaval. | | | | paying for its design, raw materials, the labor and |
| The Coming Economic Tribulation | | | | capital of manufacturing, transportation, storage, and |
| The development of molecular manufacturing will usher | | | | sales. Additional money - usually a fairly low |
| in a time period of unprecedented economic tribulation, | | | | percentage - goes to the owners of all these |
| and no part of the world will escape its impact. | | | | businesses. If personal nanofactories can produce a |
| The development of molecular manufacturing will lead | | | | wide variety of products when and where they are |
| to the proliferation of nanofactories - small, portable, | | | | wanted, most of this effort will become unnecessary. |
| fully-automated manufacturing systems about the size | | | | This raises several questions about the nature of a |
| of today's washing machines. Supplied with basic raw | | | | post-nanotech economy. Will products become |
| materials, a nanofactory will be able to break down | | | | cheaper? Will capitalism disappear? Will most people |
| molecules and reassemble them into basic consumer | | | | retire - or be unemployed? The flexibility of |
| products. A nanofactory will cost little to operate and | | | | nanofactory manufacturing, and the radical |
| will be capable of producing approximately two tons of | | | | improvement of its products, imply that non-nanotech |
| products per day. As such, it seems likely that a single | | | | products will not be able to compete in many areas. If |
| nanofactory could supply all the daily product needs of | | | | nanofactory technology is exclusively owned or |
| a typical contemporary American household at a | | | | controlled, will this create the world's biggest monopoly, |
| fraction of today's cost. | | | | with extreme potential for abusive anti-competitive |
| Nanofactories will be far more efficient and powerful | | | | practices? If it is not controlled, will the availability of |
| than the factories of the industrial revolution. They | | | | cheap copies mean that even the designers and brand |
| won't require large tracts of real estate, high-wage | | | | marketers don't get paid? Much further study is |
| employees, high energy inputs, reengineered assembly | | | | required, but it seems clear that molecular |
| lines, continual capital expenditures, or most of the | | | | manufacturing could severely disrupt the present |
| traditional costs associated with the factories of past | | | | economic structure, greatly reducing the value of many |
| generations. In addition, because of a nanofactory's | | | | material and human resources, including much of our |
| precise placement of molecules, its products will be | | | | current infrastructure. Despite utopian post-capitalist |
| nearly flawless, yielding an error rate of less than | | | | hopes, it is unclear whether a workable replacement |
| one-tenth of one percent. As a result, basic consumer | | | | system could appear in time to prevent the human |
| products will cost a fraction of what they cost today, | | | | consequences of massive job displacement." |
| and they will be far more durable and powerful. | | | | Many of these questions remain unanswered, and if |
| But nanofactories will also be different for another | | | | the world continues to be ignorant of molecular |
| reason - they will be capable of manufacturing copies | | | | manufacturing and its imminent development, these |
| of themselves. So instead of simply making basic | | | | questions are likely to be answered for us by |
| consumer products, a nanofactory could also produce | | | | whoever develops the technology. |
| a second nanofactory. The implications of this are | | | | The Initial Economic Consequences |
| staggering. At low cost, a single nanofactory could | | | | If international trade stops, if shipping and distribution |
| conceivably produce two nanofactories, which could | | | | companies go bankrupt, what will happen to those |
| produce four, then eight, and so on. In a matter weeks, | | | | nations that rely heavily on imported goods? It will take |
| the first nanofactory could populate the world with | | | | at least several days if not weeks to outfit these |
| billions of additional nanofactories. The world economic | | | | nations with their own nanofactories and MM capability. |
| order will be thrown into a tailspin as entire industries | | | | As a result of this temporary initial disruption in the |
| literally become obsolete in a matter of weeks. The | | | | supply chain, the basic laws of supply and demand will |
| current global economic order based on the tenet of | | | | determine the prices for the basic necessities of life. |
| scarce resources will be turned on its head when | | | | Although this will not be a permanent disruption, until |
| faced with a world of sudden abundance. As Steve | | | | enough nanofactories are deployed, it could mean |
| Burgess states in his work "The (Needed) New | | | | these nations will face much higher prices and/or |
| Economics of Abundance" - "Abundance, | | | | shortages. |
| paradoxically, could be highly disruptive." This means | | | | Such a situation would likely result in massive inflation, |
| the seemingly miraculous benefits of molecular | | | | government-mandated rationing, or both. Is this the |
| manufacturing will come with a price tag of global | | | | meaning of the scales in the hand of the rider on the |
| political, military, and economic instability. | | | | black horse? It is a possibility. |
| Although the widespread deployment of this | | | | If Revelation 6:6 foreshadows a massive gulf between |
| transformative technology will not be rolled out in a | | | | the living standards of the rich and poor, this would not |
| single day, knowledge of its existence and near future | | | | be an entirely surprising outcome. CRN poses the idea |
| adoption will send shockwaves through capital | | | | that, even after its full-scale deployment, MM may not |
| markets around the world and literally crush certain | | | | be the utopian dream for which people have hoped. |
| industries. Molecular manufacturing will eliminate the | | | | "The price of a product usually falls somewhere |
| need for much of today's supply chain, including | | | | between its value to the purchaser and its cost to the |
| massive factories, transportation networks, and | | | | seller. Molecular manufacturing could result in products |
| storage facilities. International trade will come to a | | | | with a value orders of magnitude higher than their cost. |
| screeching halt, as it will no longer be necessary in | | | | It is likely that the price will be set closer to the value |
| most cases (it seems likely some markets will continue | | | | than to the cost; in this case, customers will be unable |
| to thrive, such as handmade Cuban cigars, authentic | | | | to gain most of the benefit of "the nanotech revolution". |
| French wine, and a number of other historically sought | | | | If pricing products by their value is accepted, the |
| after luxury items). | | | | poorest people may continue to die of poverty, in a |
| In a process we've come to know as "creative | | | | world where products costing literally a few cents |
| destruction," many industries, such as shipping, | | | | would save a life. If (as seems likely) this situation is |
| distribution, commodities (including all generic | | | | accepted more by the rich than by the poor, social |
| non-branded consumer products), commodity retailing, | | | | unrest could add its problems to untold unnecessary |
| and petroleum, will likely lose over 90% of their current | | | | human suffering." |
| market value. On the flipside, some sectors of the | | | | The idea that molecular manufacturing's development |
| economy, such as services, intellectual property, | | | | will initially result in a global war followed by |
| branded products, and prime real estate, will likely | | | | unprecedented economic instability directly correlates |
| undergo a significant increase in value. Nevertheless, | | | | with the predicted behaviors of the first three |
| the short-term damage will be far-reaching, and the | | | | horsemen of Revelation 6. The crippling of international |
| sudden and surprising emergence of MM will likely | | | | trade, coupled with the bankruptcy of many obsolete |
| cause widespread panic in the short-term. | | | | industrial age industries, will result in worldwide |
| Millions will be unemployed. Personal fortunes will be | | | | economic upheaval. The idea that such a scenario |
| destroyed. As a result, consumer spending will | | | | might result in temporary food shortages or |
| contract, creating a tenuous situation threatening a | | | | significantly higher food prices is more than probable. |
| complete global economic meltdown. In the midst of | | | | When taken in context with the characteristics of the |
| this economic tumult, a temporary solution or an | | | | white horse of Revelation 6:2 and the red horse of |
| entirely new economic system will have to be devised | | | | Revelation 6:4, it seems quite possible that the four |
| in order to deal with the immediate aftershocks of | | | | horsemen of Revelation 6 foreshadow the |
| MM's introduction and the subsequent humanitarian | | | | development of molecular manufacturing, a |
| crises. | | | | revolutionary technology that may well be developed |
| Mike Treder, in his Future Brief commentary "War, | | | | within the next 3 to 5 years, and almost certainly will |
| Interdependence, and Nanotechnology," discusses the | | | | be developed by the year 2020. |